Executive Summary

This report presents a comprehensive, three-phase action plan to address the significant economic and demographic challenges facing Harmony Creek. Our analysis reveals a 15% population decline since 2010, a 35% commercial vacancy rate on Main Street following the closure of Creekview Manufacturing, and a stagnant residential property market. Ascendancy Partners proposes a 24-month strategic partnership to reverse these trends. The plan focuses on leveraging existing assets, securing external funding, and implementing targeted initiatives to rebuild the tax base, attract new residents and businesses, and ensure long-term, sustainable growth for the community.

1. Diagnostic Analysis & Key Findings 📊

Our preliminary analysis, based on public records and regional data, has identified several critical trends requiring immediate attention:

• Population Decline & “Brain Drain”: The population of Harmony Creek has decreased from 7,350 in the 2010 census to an estimated 6,250 today. The most significant loss is in the 25-40 age demographic, which has shrunk by 30% in the last decade. The median age has risen from 42 to 48.5.

• Economic Contraction: The closure of Creekview Manufacturing in 2022 resulted in the direct loss of 250 jobs and an estimated $1.5 million in annual local economic activity. This has led to a 35% vacancy rate among downtown storefronts (14 of 40 storefronts are currently empty).

• Eroding Tax Base: Commercial property tax revenue is projected to decrease by 12% over the next two fiscal years. Residential property values have increased by only 2% in the last five years, compared to the Ohio average of 18%.

• Underutilized Assets: Harmony Creek possesses significant, yet under-leveraged, assets including a historic downtown district, 1,200 feet of accessible riverfront property, and a strong community identity centered around the annual Fall Festival.

2. Proposed Solutions & Action Plan 🚀

We recommend a phased approach, allowing for clear milestones and continuous community feedback.

Phase I: Strategic Blueprint (Months 1-3)

This phase is focused on deep-dive analysis and creating a unified, actionable plan.

• Action 1: Comprehensive Data Audit. We will conduct a granular analysis of local tax records, utility usage, and business licenses to identify specific points of economic leakage.

• Action 2: Community Engagement Campaign. We will hold three public town halls and conduct confidential interviews with the top 15 local employers and property owners. A town-wide survey will be deployed to gather direct resident feedback, with a target of 1,000 responses.

• Action 3: Asset & Infrastructure Assessment. We will create a formal inventory of all commercial properties, public spaces, and infrastructure, identifying key locations for redevelopment, such as the vacant granary and the historic Miller Building on Main Street.

• Deliverable: The “Harmony Creek Comeback” Blueprint—a detailed strategic plan with a 5-year outlook, prioritized projects, and cost estimates.

Phase II: Implementation & Growth (Months 4-18)

This phase is about turning the blueprint into reality.

• Initiative A: The Main Street Revival.

  • Goal: Reduce downtown vacancy from 35% to below 15%.

  • Action: Launch a $150,000 Façade Improvement Grant Program, using an initial $50,000 of town seed money to apply for a 2:1 matching state grant. This program will target the renovation of at least 10 historic storefronts in the first year.

  • Action: Partner with the Arts Council to commission three public murals on key downtown buildings, increasing foot traffic and creating a vibrant public space.

• Initiative B: Attracting New Business & Talent.

  • Goal: Attract 10 new businesses and 50 new remote-working residents.

  • Action: Convert the second floor of the Miller Building into a Co-Working & Small Business Incubator Space. We will seek a $250,000 Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) grant to fund this project.

  • Action: Develop a marketing campaign targeting remote workers in major Ohio cities, highlighting Harmony Creek’s affordable cost of living and high quality of life.

• Initiative C: Placemaking & Branding.

  • Goal: Rebrand Harmony Creek as a desirable destination for visitors and new residents.

  • Action: Launch a new town brand and website under the theme: “Harmony Creek: Your Hometown Getaway.”

  • Action: Secure funding for and develop the Harmony Creek Riverwalk, a walking trail and greenspace project to activate the underutilized riverfront.

Phase III: Monitoring & Sustainability (Months 19-24)

This phase ensures long-term success is managed by the community.

• Action 1: Capacity Building. We will train and establish a formal “Downtown Harmony Creek” economic development committee, empowering local leaders to manage the grant programs and marketing efforts going forward.

• Action 2: Performance Tracking. We will implement a public-facing Community Dashboard on the town’s website to track KPIs and maintain transparency and momentum.

3. Projected Impact & Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Our goal is to achieve the following measurable outcomes within 36 months of project initiation:

4. Proposed Budget & Timeline

We propose a performance-based consulting fee structure. Our success is tied to your success.

• Phase I: Strategic Blueprint: $35,000 (Flat Fee)

• Phase II: Implementation & Growth: $85,000 (Includes all grant writing and project management support)

• Phase III: Monitoring & Sustainability: $25,000 (Includes training and transition)

• Total Project Fee: $145,000

Note: Our primary objective in Phase II is to secure grant funding. Historically, our clients see a return of $5 to $10 in grant funding for every dollar invested in our services.

We are prepared to begin Phase I immediately upon approval from the Town Council. We are confident that by working together, we can build a prosperous and resilient future for Harmony Creek.

Thank you for your time and consideration.